Maybe the 2020 election protest in Belarus was the final incident, that drove Putin to his full invasion of Ukraine. Free elections in Belarus or Ukraine are the one thing he fears most.
Thankfully, the Russian army continues to make little progress. It is now conceivable that Kiev and Odessa will never be captured. I've been feeling a little bit better for a few days now since it became clear that large cities and forest areas are probably too big a challenge for the Russian army.